Is There A Green Car in Your Future

Is There A Green Car in Your Future?

Getting people to switch from a gas-guzzling sport utility vehicle to a fuel-saving two-seater may seem like a stretch, but anything's possible in an age of rising gasoline prices and concerns about our climate's stability. Look at the Ford Motor Company. It dropped out of a coalition that opposed increasing technology efficiency to avoid climate change. The auto maker then vowed it would voluntarily improve the efficiency of the Ford Escape, its next light truck model, by 25%.

ORNL's Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA) in the Energy Division is actively involved in an effort to persuade more consumers to buy and drive "green" cars and trucks, which use less fuel per mile and emit less carbon dioxide. In 2000 CTA and the University of Tennessee held a Green Vehicle Workshop involving representatives of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), DOE, state and federal agencies, environmental groups, U.S. auto makers, and oil companies. As a result of the workshop, UT and ORNL are forming an industry-government coalition to promote green vehicles through an advertising campaign. In addition, UT and ORNL will work with EPA to develop a rating system that shows which cars emit the most carbon dioxide and pollutants and which ones discharge the least.

"We will expand our efforts with UT to promote green vehicles, such as electric and hybrid vehicles," says David Greene, a CTA researcher based at the National Transportation Research Center and lead author of the transportation chapter for an upcoming report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Greene concedes the goal will not be easy to achieve.

"Hybrid cars are remarkable technical achievements," he says. "They work well and improve fuel economy a lot. The problem is that the Toyota Prius looks like a Toyota Echo but it costs $5000 more. That extra $5000 won't be covered by fuel savings over the lifetime of this hybrid car in the United States, but it would be in Tokyo. The Honda Insight costs $18,000, which is awfully expensive for a two-seater."

But, he notes, many people are willing to pay more to drive a car. "The value to most people of owning and driving a car exceeds the price," Greene says. "For example, Europeans are driving more cars even though their fuel price is four times the U.S. cost of gas."

The hope is that more Americans will buy expensive green cars because they value technologies that help protect the environment and preserve fuel supplies for future generations.

"Paul Leiby of ORNL and I are studying the alternative fuel market," Greene says. "We are evaluating how well existing technologies are doing—such as ethanol, methanol, LPG, compressed natural gas, battery electric, and hybrid cars. These cars are mostly owned by government agencies and big corporations, which are required by the Alternative Motor Fuels Act to operate large fleets of cars that use alternative fuels. For example, ORNL has an ethanol fleet. Our analysis indicates that even with the private alternative-fuel fleets and government subsidies to support refueling stations, the market for alternative-fuel cars and new technologies such as hybrid cars is not going to take off.

"The costs of the car and fuel are too high. Most rational persons will not pay more than $3000 to have a car that is twice as efficient as what they have now. Hybrid cars must be made much cheaper. But it is possible with advanced technology to bring this cost down."

Greene cites the NECAR, the fuel-cell car designed by Mercedes and now being produced and marketed by Daimler Chrysler. "In five years," he says, "the cost of the NECAR came down to one-tenth its original price."

Because diesel cars are 40% more efficient than gasoline cars, Greene sees a good future for diesel cars in the United States if they are sold here by several auto makers. "Diesel cars have improved," says Greene, "The newer ones accelerate better than the older cars, and they don't smell and rattle anymore. They do emit nitrogen oxides and particulates, so diesel cars will have advanced catalytic converters to remove these air pollutants. To keep the catalysts from being poisoned, the new cars will use diesel fuel that has much lower levels of sulfur."

If the diesel car becomes an affordable green car, many more Americans may be willing to spend their greenbacks on it.





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